Bolivia: In preparation for the 10 August 2008 recall referendum, security will likely be increased across Bolivia, especially in La Paz and Santa Cruz. Given the tense political situation, there is the possibility of outbreaks of violence and major transportation disruptions within the next few days. The recall referendum is part of the ongoing struggle for political power between the national government and the provinces. The recall bill states that the president, vice president and governors of provinces will lose their positions if they do not perform better than they did in the 2005 elections. For an official to retain office, both the vote percentage and the absolute number of votes won must be higher than in 2005. If President Evo Morales and Vice President Alvaro Garcia Linera lose, they must hold new elections within 90-120 days, in which they themselves are likely to be strong candidates. If the governors lose, they are to be replaced by interim governors of Morales' choosing until the next election. The recall vote on the governors will take place in eight out of the nine provinces; Chuquisaca will not participate as the governor there was just recently elected. Morales looks likely to remain in power, but whatever the outcome, the referendum is unlikely to resolve this conflict. The issue of autonomy, which the provinces have been demanding, will remain controversial, although the two sides may change their tactics depending on the results of the 10 August vote.

On 7 August anti-government groups blocked a runway at one of Beni's airports to prevent Morales from visiting the area. Groups also prevented Morales from visiting Santa Cruz and Tajira. Morales was forced to hold Independence Day celebrations on 6 August in his stronghold of La Paz instead of Sucre, the nation's official capital and the traditional scene of celebrations.

Venezuela: There is an increased risk of transportation disruptions and civil unrest throughout Caracas, especially in the downtown area, on 9 August 2008, as thousands are expected to protest a series of decrees by President Hugo Chavez that critics say are similar to measures already rejected by voters in a December 2007 referendum. Demonstrators are expected to end their march at the National Electoral Council.

China: The Turkistan Islamic Movement (TIM), which released a video in late July threatening to attack Olympic venues, has now issued another video to the same effect. The group warned Muslims to avoid all transportation, including trains, buses and aircraft, in relation to the Olympics. The video shows an explosion over an Olympic venue and a burning Olympics logo and justifies the jihad against China due to the mistreatment of Muslims in the country. Officials believe that the group has trained with al-Qaeda in Pakistan and that its main goal is to seek independence for the largely Muslim-populated Xinjiang.

In response to the new threat, on 8 August officials in Urumqi, Xinjian’s provincial capital, shut down several public venues, including the local bazaar, due to concerns that the TIM would target public transportation. Areas surrounding mosques and popular Western food establishments, such as a Kentucky Fried Chicken restaurant, were closed off to the public. Unlike other cities in Xinjiang, Urumqi is largely populated with Han Chinese, who are seen as a target for terrorism in the region.

China: Emerging reports on 8 August 2008 state that three exits at Causeway Bay MTR station in Hong Kong closed down when a suspicious package was found at Exit D at approximately 1530 local time. Officials with the Explosive Ordnance Disposal Bureau have arrived at the scene and have closed nearby roads, including East Point Road and Lockhart Road. In addition, some shops have been closed to ensure public safety. The device reportedly consists of a cylinder with wires attached. Investigations are ongoing.

China: Security in China, especially Beijing, is at an all time high with the opening ceremonies for the Summer Olympics currently underway. According to officials, the Olympic Green in the capital was shut down at midnight on 7 August, so that security teams would be allowed to sweep the area for bombs before the beginning of the ceremony. Only individuals with opening day stickers will be allowed on the Green. These increased security measures will last until midnight on 9 August.

The Chinese news agency Xinhua reported that increased restrictions on transportation have gone into affect in the immediate vicinity of Olympic venues. Specifically, all vehicles will be banned from the following: the Second Ring Road; the north side of the Fourth Ring Road, and all streets surrounding the National Stadium.

Local media reported on 7 August that no protests have been authorized on the Beijing Organizing Committee for the Olympic Games (BOCOG)-approved protest zones. Chinese officials have denied several applications, and in one instance protesters were told to leave Beijing. However, as seen in recent days, a number of individuals have staged unauthorized demonstrations in Beijing. Emerging reports indicate that during the opening ceremonies, three U.S. pro-Tibet protesters were detained en-route to the National Stadium. Officials stated that they were planning to carry Tibetan flags, which goes against the rules and regulations for the Games.

Regarding the aviation sector, the Chinese Aviation Authority (CAA) reported that all flights entering Beijing air space during the Olympics will have to provide their flight number, flight level, position and security situation on their aircraft and that those aircraft that do not comply will be directed around Beijing air space.

Georgia: Fighting has escalated in the separatist region of South Ossetia on the morning of 8 August 2008. Reports indicate that Georgia launched a ground and air assault on Tskhinvali, the capital of the breakaway region, at approximately 0330 local time (2330 UTC on 7 August). Heavy fighting and shelling continued in the city throughout the night, and Georgia claims to have taken control of most of the city and region. Russian military sources indicate that it has been "almost totally destroyed."

Russia has allegedly responded with air assaults on Georgian targets, including the Vaziani military airbase near Tbilisi, the Georgian capital, and other cities and towns near the separatist region. Georgia claims to have shot down at least two Russian aircraft. Russia has also sent reinforcements to Tskhinvali, including a convoy of 150 tanks and armored personnel carriers. Volunteer fighters from Russia and Georgia’s other separatist region of Abkhazia have also reportedly stated that they will travel to South Ossetia to help defend the region.

Meanwhile, Georgia announced on 8 August that it will open an evacuation route and will observe a ceasefire from 1600 to 1800 local time (1100 to 1400 UTC) to allow those who wish to leave South Ossetia to do so. NATO, the European Union and the United States have called for an end to the violence.

ASI Comment: Although the fighting has thus far not affected Tbilisi, it appears to be expanding farther and farther outside of the separatist region with the involvement of Russia. Georgian officials already claim that Russia is fighting a war with Georgia, and the situation has the potential to seriously escalate, which would affect all travelers and residents in Georgia. The U.S. Embassy in Tbilisi has issued a Warden Message, warning against non-essential travel to Georgia. The full text is available below.

Japan / China: Air China Flight 406, en-route from Nagoya's Chubu Centrair International Airport (RJGG/NGO) to Chongqing's Jiang Bei Airport (ZUCK/CKG) via Shanghai, received an anonymous bomb threat (written in Japanese) on 8 August 2008. The threat came via an email message warning that all Air China aircraft will be bombed if operations are not suspended. The email also stated that if the airline does not comply with this demand aircraft will be crashed into Olympic venues. Two aircraft at Fukuoka Airport (RJFF/FUK) in southern Japan immediately undder went inspection and were later cleared for takeoff. Flight 406 returned to Nagoya after the threat; the flight resumed later in the day. Officials believe that the threat was related to the Olympics. In addition to Flight 406, four other flights were delayed. Two at Tokyo's Narita International Airport (RJAA/NRT) under went inspection and were cleared for takeoff. One flight, headed to Beijing Capital International (ZBAA/PEK) was redirected to Tianjin. Beijing's airport is currently shut down as planned due to the opening ceremonies for the Olympic Games, which began at 2000 local time (1200 UTC).

Myanmar: On 8 August 2008 Myanmar's military junta deployed riot police officers and junta supporters in towns and cities throughout the country to discourage protests on the 20th anniversary of the "8-8-88" pro-democracy uprising. In Yangon, the government deployed security forces near the Shwedagon pagoda, the former campus of Rangoon University and dissident Aung San Suu Kyi's home. So far, there have been few reports of protests. In the northwest town of Taunggok, police officers arrested 48 activists during a protest march.

Meanwhile, the anniversary prompted anti-junta protests elsewhere in Asia. In Japan, approximately 800 protesters marched to the Myanmar Embassy in downtown Tokyo to demand the release of Aung San Suu Kyi and other political prisoners. Demonstrations also occurred at the Chinese and Myanmar embassies in Bangkok and Manila.

Czech Republic: On 8 August 2008 an international express train traveling from Krakow, Poland, to Prague crashed in the Czech Republic, causing fatalities. The train was traveling at approximately 90 mph/140 kph when it crashed into a collapsed bridge near the town of Studentka, located on the northeastern border between Czech Republic and Poland. A Czech Railways spokesperson stated that at least six people were killed in the crash but he added that firefighters have not finished a search of the wreckage, leaving open the possibility that the number of casualties will increase.

France: On 8 August 2008 three explosives were defused near Arcangues, located in the commune of Pyrenees-Atlantiques, after an anonymous caller warned officials of the devices at approximately 0400 local time (0200 UTC). One of the explosives was found in Pierre et Vacances, a resort village, another was found near a tourist office and the third bomb was retrieved on a TGV railway line between Boucau and Ondres. A local official described the devices as being "homemade, low-intensity and defective." All devices were safely defused. Approximately 1,000 people had to be evacuated, but all venues have now been reopened to the public. The caller also warned of devices at three other locations, but no additional devices were found. The motives and perpetrators are unknown at present.

Germany: Pilots at Lufthansa’s subsidiary Cityline ended their 36-hour strike at 1200 local time (1000 UTC) on 8 August 2008, as scheduled. In all, 500 flights were canceled during the strike, including 140 on 8 August. According to a company spokesperson, airline operations will return to normal in the course of the day. The union warned of additional strikes if Lufthansa does not improve its current wage increase offer but did not specify a deadline.

GOVERNMENT WARNINGS

Belize: The U.S. Embassy in Belmopan issued the following Warden Message on 7 August 2008: "The U.S. Embassy in Belmopan issues the following information to American citizens traveling to or residing in Belize. Due to a recent increase in violent crime in Belmopan and the surrounding areas of the Cayo District, Americans are reminded to exercise an appropriate level of vigilance and caution in all their activities. U.S. citizens should exercise particular caution when in unfamiliar areas and be aware of their surroundings at all times.

"Violent crime continues to affect both urban and rural areas of the country. In the past two weeks there have been several armed robberies and other violent crimes committed in Belmopan, located in Cayo District. Residents and visitors to Belmopan, San Ignacio, Benque Viejo, rural villages in the Cayo District, as well as Belize City, should remain alert and be aware of their surroundings at all times.

"The Belize Ministry of National Security continues to work with local police, the Belize Defense Force and the U.S. Embassy with regard to security issues in the country. While some recent robberies have affected U.S. Citizens directly, there is no current information available to suggest that the perpetrators were specifically targeting tourists or U.S. citizens. In some cases victims appear to have been targets of opportunity."

Colombia: On 7 August 2008 the U.S. Department of State issued the following Travel Warning: "This Travel Warning updates and reminds American citizens of ongoing security concerns in Colombia. The Department of State continues to warn U.S. citizens of the dangers of travel to Colombia. While security in Colombia has improved significantly in recent years, violence by narco-terrorist groups continues to affect some rural areas and cities. The potential for violence by terrorists and other criminal elements exists in all parts of the country. This Travel Warning supersedes the Travel Warning for Colombia issued February 05, 2008.

"Violence has decreased markedly in many urban areas; however, the level of violence in Buenaventura remains high. Small towns and rural areas of Colombia can still be extremely dangerous due to the presence of narco-terrorists. Common crime remains a significant problem in many urban and rural areas. For additional details about the general criminal threat, please see the Department of State’s Country Specific Information for Colombia.

"The incidence of kidnapping in Colombia has diminished significantly from its peak at the beginning of this decade. Nevertheless, terrorist groups such as the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the National Liberation Army (ELN), and other criminal organizations continue to kidnap and hold civilians for ransom or as political bargaining chips. No one is immune from kidnapping on the basis of occupation, nationality, or other factors. Kidnapping in rural areas is of particular concern. On July 2, 2008, the Government of Colombia rescued 15 hostages, including three Americans, who had been held for more than 5 years. Although the U.S. government places the highest priority on the safe recovery of kidnapped Americans, it is U.S. policy not to make concessions to or strike deals with kidnappers. Consequently, the U.S. government’s ability to assist kidnapping victims is limited.

"U.S. government officials and their families in Colombia are permitted to travel to major cities in the country, but normally only by air. They cannot use inter- or intra-city bus transportation, or travel by road outside urban areas at night. All Americans in Colombia are urged to follow these precautions."

Georgia: On 8 August 2008 the U.S. Embassy in Tbilisi issued the following Warden Message: "Ongoing conflict is taking place between Georgian and separatist forces inside South Ossetia.

"The highway between Gori and Mtskheta has been closed until further notice. U.S. citizens are urged to avoid non-essential travel inside Georgia at this time, to defer all travel north of Gori, and to avoid all travel to the conflict zones of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Updated warden messages will be posted on the Embassy website at: http://georgia.usembassy.gov/citserv_wardenm.html.

"American citizens in Tbilisi may also tune in to Radio Syndicati at FM 104.3 or throughout Georgia at Radio Green Wave at FM 107.4 for updated U.S. Embassy warden message information for U.S. citizens."

Pakistan: On 7 August 2008 the U.S. Department of State issued the following Travel Warning: "This Travel Warning updates information on security incidents and reminds U.S. citizens of ongoing security concerns in Pakistan. This Travel Warning supersedes the Travel Warning dated September 21, 2007.

"The Department of State continues to warn U.S. citizens against non-essential travel to Pakistan in light of the threat of terrorist activity.

"The presence of Al-Qaida, Taliban elements and indigenous sectarian groups poses a potential danger to American citizens, especially in the western border regions. Continuing tensions in the Middle East also increase the possibility of violence against Westerners in Pakistan. Terrorists and their sympathizers have demonstrated their willingness and capability to attack targets where Americans are known to congregate or visit, such as hotels, clubs and restaurants, places of worship, schools, or outdoor recreation events. In March 2008, a restaurant frequented by westerners in Islamabad was bombed, killing one patron and seriously injuring several others, including four American diplomats. On March 2, 2006, an American diplomat, his locally employed driver, and three others were killed when a suicide bomber detonated a car packed with explosives in front of the U.S. Consulate General in Karachi. Fifty-two others were wounded.

"Sectarian and extremist violence has resulted in fatal bomb attacks in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Karachi, Peshawar, Quetta, Lahore, and other Pakistani cities in 2006, 2007 and 2008. Since 2007, over 1,000 bombings have killed more than 1,000 people throughout Pakistan and injured many more. Some of the attacks have occurred outside major hotels, in market areas and other locations frequented by Americans. Other recent targets have included restaurants, Pakistani government officials and buildings, and international NGOs.

"Rallies, demonstrations, and processions occur regularly throughout Pakistan on very short notice. In the aftermath of the December 2007 death of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, widespread rioting in Karachi led to multiple deaths and injuries as well as widespread property damage. Demonstrations have often taken on an anti-American or anti-western character, and Americans are urged to avoid large gatherings.

"In 2007 and 2008, several American citizens throughout Pakistan were kidnapped for ransom or for personal reasons. Kidnappings for ransom are common in some parts of Pakistan, such as the Northwest Frontier Province and Sindh Province."

SIGNIFICANT DATES

8 August

Bhutan: Independence Day (Public holiday)
China: Olympic Games being held in Beijing, Shanghai, Qingdao, Hong Kong, Tianjin, Shenyang, Qinhuangdao (Increased security throughout Olympic cities. Public holiday on 8 August; stores and some government offices closed)
China: New U.S. Embassy in Beijing to be opened in a ceremony by President George W. Bush (increased security around perimeter; anti-Bush protests possible)
Tanzania: Peasant's Day (Nane Nane)

9 August

China: Olympic Games being held in Beijing, Shanghai, Qingdao, Hong Kong, Tianjin, Shenyang, Qinhuangdao (Increased security throughout Olympic cities. Public holiday on 8 August; stores and some government offices closed)
Afghanistan: Independence Day (Jeshen) (Most government and business offices close.)
Sierra Leone: National Day
Singapore: National Day (Commemorates Singapore's independence from Malaysia in 1965. Most government and business offices close. The National Day Parade may affect transportation.)
South Africa: National Women's Day (Most government offices and businesses closed.)

10 August

China: Olympic Games being held in Beijing, Shanghai, Qingdao, Hong Kong, Tianjin, Shenyang, Qinhuangdao (Increased security throughout Olympic cities. Public holiday on 8 August; stores and some government offices closed)
Afghanistan: Independence Day (Jeshen) (Most government and business offices close.)
Bolivia: Recall referendum (Security will likely be increased across the country, especially in La Paz and Santa Cruz. Given the tense political situation, there is a higher than usual risk of outbreaks of violence and major transportation disruptions.)
Ecuador: National Independence Day (Public holiday)

11 August

China: Olympic Games being held in Beijing, Shanghai, Qingdao, Hong Kong, Tianjin, Shenyang, Qinhuangdao (Increased security throughout Olympic cities. Public holiday on 8 August; stores and some government offices closed)
Afghanistan: Independence Day (Jeshen) (Most government and business offices close.)
Chad: Independence Day (Public holiday)
Zimbabwe: Heroes Day (Public Holiday)

12 August

China: Olympic Games being held in Beijing, Shanghai, Qingdao, Hong Kong, Tianjin, Shenyang, Qinhuangdao (Increased security throughout Olympic cities. Public holiday on 8 August; stores and some government offices closed)
Afghanistan: Independence Day (Jeshen) (Most government and business offices close.)
Thailand: Queen's Birthday (Government offices and some businesses close.)
Zambia: Defense Day
Zimbabwe: Defense Forces Day (Public Holiday)

13 August

China: Olympic Games being held in Beijing, Shanghai, Qingdao, Hong Kong, Tianjin, Shenyang, Qinhuangdao (Increased security throughout Olympic cities. Public holiday on 8 August; stores and some government offices closed)
Afghanistan: Independence Day (Jeshen) (Most government and business offices close.)
Central African Republic: Independence Day
Laos: Lao Issara (Day of the Free Laos; public holiday)
Tunisia: Women's Day (Public holiday. Most offices and businesses close.)

14 August

China: Olympic Games being held in Beijing, Shanghai, Qingdao, Hong Kong, Tianjin, Shenyang, Qinhuangdao (Increased security throughout Olympic cities. Public holiday on 8 August; stores and some government offices closed)
Afghanistan: Independence Day (Jeshen) (Most government and business offices close.)
Morocco: Reunification Day (Marks Morocco’s declaration of unity with the Western Sahara in 1979.)
Pakistan: Independence Day (Most government and business offices close.)
United Kingdom: British Troops sent to Northern Ireland (1969) (Some unrest and demonstrations in Northern Ireland possible.)
Islam: Lailat al-Baraa (New Year: Festivities are organized in some countries.)

15 August

China: Olympic Games being held in Beijing, Shanghai, Qingdao, Hong Kong, Tianjin, Shenyang, Qinhuangdao (Increased security throughout Olympic cities. Public holiday on 8 August; stores and some government offices closed)
Afghanistan: Independence Day (Jeshen) (Most government and business offices close.)
Islam: Lailat al-Baraa (New Year: Festivities are organized in some countries.)
Chinese Calendar: Chung Yuan Festival (Yue Laan in Hong Kong)
Republic Of Congo: Independence Day (Public holiday; government and business offices close.)
Costa Rica: Mother's Day
Equatorial Guinea: Constitution Day (Public ceremonies likely.)
India: Independence Day (Most government and business offices close. There is a high probability that terrorist attacks will occur on or around this day, especially in Indian-controlled Kashmir. Every year, authorities tighten security for this day.)
Liechtenstein: National Day (Public holiday; government and business offices closed.)
Panama: Anniversary of the Founding of Panama City (Panama City only. Businesses, schools and government offices close. Some gatherings expected.)
Paraguay: Founding of Asunción
South Korea: Independence Day (Most government and business offices close. Protests are likely.)
Christianity: Assumption of the Blessed Virgin Mary (Public holiday in several countries, including Austria, Belgium, Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Côte d'Ivoire, France, Germany, Greece, Guatemala, Haiti, Ireland, Italy, Malta, Mexico, Chad, Cape Verde.)

16 August

China: Olympic Games being held in Beijing, Shanghai, Qingdao, Hong Kong, Tianjin, Shenyang, Qinhuangdao (Increased security throughout Olympic cities. Public holiday on 8 August; stores and some government offices closed)
Afghanistan: Independence Day (Jeshen) (Most government and business offices close.)
Dominican Republic: Restoration of the Republic (Government offices, schools and some businesses close.)

17 August

China: Olympic Games being held in Beijing, Shanghai, Qingdao, Hong Kong, Tianjin, Shenyang, Qinhuangdao (Increased security throughout Olympic cities. Public holiday on 8 August; stores and some government offices closed)
Afghanistan: Independence Day (Jeshen) (Most government and business offices close.)
Gabon: Independence Day (Widely celebrated, especially in villages. Celebrations may go from 16-18 August.)
Indonesia: Independence Day (Most government and business offices close.)

18 August

China: Olympic Games being held in Beijing, Shanghai, Qingdao, Hong Kong, Tianjin, Shenyang, Qinhuangdao (Increased security throughout Olympic cities. Public holiday on 8 August; stores and some government offices closed)
Afghanistan: Independence Day (Jeshen) (Most government and business offices close.)
Bangladesh: Shab-e-Barat (Government offices and businesses closed)
Islam: Lailat al Bara'a

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